Despite fears that the move could immediately push up fuel prices, industry experts say the refinery's new pricing model has not significantly changed the naira value of its ex-depot price.

At its current gantry price of $0.779 per litre, the product costs about N1,072 per litre when converted using the prevailing official exchange rate of roughly N1,376.54/$. This remains broadly in line with the refinery's previous ex-depot pricing, indicating that marketers are not paying substantially more for petrol under the new dollar-based pricing system.

Checks also show that filling stations across Lagos have continued normal operations, with pump prices remaining unchanged following the announcement.

However, analysts caution that while consumers may not feel the impact immediately, pricing petroleum products in dollars could expose the domestic market to greater foreign exchange risks if the naira weakens further.

According to industry stakeholders, the refinery's decision reflects the realities of the global oil market. Crude oil is traded internationally in dollars, while several operational costs—including crude procurement, logistics, taxes and other charges—are also dollar-denominated.

Although the Federal Government introduced the naira-for-crude initiative through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) to enable local crude supply in naira, industry sources say the arrangement has yet to provide the refinery with the volume of crude it requires.

Experts Weigh In

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the refinery's decision should be viewed as a commercial response to global market conditions rather than an attempt to increase fuel prices.

He noted that refiners and energy companies worldwide increasingly adopt pricing strategies that protect them from volatility in crude oil prices and exchange-rate fluctuations.

Similarly, oil and gas analyst Dr. Ayodele Oni described the move as commercially justifiable, explaining that a refinery that buys crude in dollars but sells refined products in naira is vulnerable to exchange-rate losses whenever the local currency depreciates.

According to him, pricing refined products in dollars allows the refinery to better align its earnings with its foreign currency obligations and reduce exposure to currency risks.